Nvidia's China AI Chip Market Share Set to Collapse from 40% to 8% as Huawei Takes the Lead
Summary
- • Bernstein predicts Nvidia's China AI chip market share will plummet from ~40% in 2025 to just ~8% in 2026, with Huawei rising to ~50%.
- • Huawei's Ascend 950 chips are now considered roughly comparable to Nvidia's H200 by industry analysts.
- • Jensen Huang publicly acknowledged Nvidia has lost its edge in China's AI chip market, citing export controls as the turning point.
- • Despite Trump approving H200 chip sales to China, Beijing has strategically pivoted to domestic alternatives and is unlikely to reverse course.
Details
Nvidia China share: 40% → 8%
Bernstein Research estimates Nvidia held ~40% of China's AI chip market in 2025 and predicts it will fall to ~8% in 2026.
Huawei China share: 40% → 50%
Huawei matched Nvidia at ~40% share in 2025 and is projected to lead with ~50% of China's AI chip market in 2026, per Bernstein.
Nvidia's starting point: 95%
Before US export controls, Nvidia held approximately 95% of China's AI chip market, according to CEO Jensen Huang.
Huawei Ascend 950 vs. H200
Analysts consider Huawei's Ascend 950 series to be roughly comparable to Nvidia's H200—one of Nvidia's most powerful commercial AI chips.
H200 export control reversal
US initially blocked H200 sales to China on national security grounds; President Trump later approved their sale, but Beijing had already pivoted to domestic chips.
Beijing's domestic-chip pivot
The Chinese government is actively encouraging use of domestically designed chips, making Nvidia's commercial recovery in China unlikely despite the policy opening.
Huawei AI cluster rollout
Huawei announced large-scale AI computing clusters combining thousands of its chips, directly competing with Nvidia's data center offerings.
Demand still exceeds supply
Chinese AI chip demand still outpaces available supply—indicating a large market that domestic manufacturers are racing to fill.
US export controls triggered a strategic realignment in China's AI hardware market that has largely cemented Huawei's domestic dominance.
What This Means
The US-China chip competition has produced an outcome that may be the opposite of US policy intentions: years of export restrictions gave Huawei and other Chinese chipmakers the time and incentive to develop domestically competitive AI silicon, and Beijing's policy support has now locked in those gains. Nvidia's projected collapse from 95% to 8% market share in China represents one of the most dramatic commercial retreats in the semiconductor industry's history. For Nvidia, this is a significant long-term revenue headwind in one of the world's fastest-growing AI markets. For US tech policy, it raises hard questions about whether chip export controls slow Chinese AI development or accelerate the push for self-sufficiency.
Sources
- Nvidia’s AI chip sales in China stall, as local chipmakers like Huawei take the lead - AP NewsAP News
- Nvidia’s AI chip sales are stalling in China. Here’s who’s gaining market shareFastcompany
- IDC: Nvidia's AI chip shipments in China fell 44% YoY to 678K in H1 2026, as its market share slid to 34% amid US export curbs and rising domestic competitionReuters